Season 2022

conservative investor

Team Predictability CI Yield
Cove Rangers 100.0% 37.1%
Stranraer 83.3% 31.0%
Exeter City 86.4% 30.8%
Watford 87.5% 28.1%
Liverpool 94.1% 22.6%
Gillingham 85.0% 22.5%
Nottingham Forest 95.5% 21.6%
Sunderland 83.3% 21.5%
Kelty Hearts 82.4% 20.2%
Blackburn Rovers 86.4% 20.2%
Bolton Wanderers 86.4% 16.6%
Birmingham City 72.7% 15.9%
Norwich City 75.0% 14.7%
Leicester City 75.0% 14.1%
Airdrie 82.4% 13.5%
MK Dons 78.3% 13.2%
Tranmere Rovers 77.3% 12.4%
Plymouth Argyle 90.9% 11.6%
Falkirk 77.8% 11.3%
Huddersfield Town 81.8% 10.6%
Hearts 87.5% 9.6%
Arbroath 73.3% 9.4%
Rotherham 78.3% 9.4%
Tottenham Hotspur 86.7% 8.9%
Oldham Athletic 72.7% 8.7%
Celtic 88.9% 8.5%
Walsall 72.7% 8.4%
Queens Park Rangers 72.7% 6.2%
Wycombe Wanderers 82.6% 5.9%
Kilmarnock 75.0% 5.8%
Arsenal 77.8% 5.6%
Annan Athletic 55.6% 5.5%
Dumbarton 78.9% 5.4%
Fleetwood Town 77.3% 5.0%
Rangers 81.3% 4.9%
Crewe Alexandra 71.4% 4.7%
Forest Green Rovers 63.6% 4.5%
Salford City 69.6% 2.9%
Queen of South 66.7% 2.8%
Motherwell 77.8% 2.7%
Wigan Athletic 72.7% 2.7%
Northampton Town 72.7% 2.3%
Reading 72.7% 2.2%
Sheffield Wed. 66.7% 0.3%
Manchester City 82.4% 0.0%
Blackpool 77.3% -1.6%
Leeds United 82.4% -1.9%
Carlisle United 61.9% -2.5%
Bristol Rovers 81.8% -2.8%
Luton Town 81.8% -3.2%
Scunthorpe 68.2% -3.7%
Mansfield Town 77.3% -3.8%
Aston Villa 60.0% -3.9%
Hamilton 66.7% -3.9%
Fulham 68.2% -4.9%
Bournemouth 72.7% -5.1%
East Fife 64.7% -5.9%
Sutton Utd 71.4% -6.0%
Stoke City 54.5% -6.6%
Manchester United 66.7% -6.8%
Doncaster Rovers 61.9% -7.0%
Brighton and HA 61.1% -7.4%
Partick Thistle 61.1% -7.7%
Chelsea 58.8% -8.0%
Leyton Orient 71.4% -8.5%
Cardiff City 59.1% -8.7%
Portsmouth 68.4% -8.7%
Oxford United 72.7% -9.1%
Barnsley 68.2% -10.4%
Peterhead 64.7% -10.5%
Queen's Park 55.6% -11.2%
Bristol City 68.2% -11.8%
Stirling Albion 61.1% -12.3%
Charlton Athletic 69.6% -13.1%
AFC Wimbledon 76.2% -14.0%
Millwall 63.6% -14.1%
Harrogate Town 77.3% -14.2%
Swindon Town 63.6% -14.3%
Dundee Utd 58.8% -14.5%
Livingston 66.7% -14.6%
Bradford City 68.2% -14.7%
Accrington Stanley 61.9% -14.9%
Wolverhampton W 56.3% -15.6%
Brentford 58.8% -15.7%
St Johnstone 72.2% -16.1%
Forfar 57.9% -16.4%
Everton 62.5% -17.1%
Inverness CT 55.6% -17.2%
Port Vale 72.7% -17.5%
Middlesbrough 68.2% -17.7%
Burton Albion 61.9% -18.0%
Hull City 50.0% -18.1%
Albion 58.8% -18.2%
Lincoln City 57.1% -18.7%
Newcastle United 68.8% -18.9%
Barrow 61.9% -19.4%
Crawley Town 52.4% -19.6%
West Bromwich Albion 52.4% -20.1%
Coventry City 52.4% -20.9%
Stenhousemuir 58.8% -22.0%
Morton 62.5% -22.1%
Cheltenham 57.1% -22.5%
Shrewsbury 56.5% -22.6%
Raith Rovers 61.1% -22.9%
Crystal Palace 61.1% -23.1%
Hibernian 66.7% -23.2%
Cambridge United 52.2% -23.2%
Dundee 70.6% -23.2%
Peterborough United 50.0% -23.4%
St Mirren 76.5% -24.1%
Clyde 62.5% -25.1%
Cowdenbeath 58.8% -25.6%
Edinburgh City 55.6% -26.6%
Colchester United 59.1% -26.9%
Burnley 56.3% -26.9%
Ipswich Town 56.5% -26.9%
Hartlepool 50.0% -27.7%
Ross County 56.3% -31.6%
Elgin City 56.3% -31.9%
Ayr 55.6% -31.9%
West Ham United 35.3% -32.3%
Swansea City 59.1% -32.6%
Aberdeen 58.8% -33.1%
Morecambe 50.0% -35.5%
Rochdale 50.0% -35.5%
Montrose 57.9% -37.2%
Newport 63.6% -37.7%
Stevenage 45.5% -39.8%
Sheffield Utd 54.5% -41.0%
Derby County 50.0% -41.2%
Preston NE 54.5% -42.8%
Southampton 50.0% -45.3%
Alloa 37.5% -47.0%
Dunfermline 52.6% -54.7%

 

Measure of a team's predictability when playing home games.

Predictability is defined as winning games a team is expected to win and correspondingly losing games when the odds suggests the team is expected to lose. A team with high predictability is more likely to return a profit on investment than a team with low predictability whilst playing home games on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds.

Magnitude emphasises the degree of predictability in the outcome of the game. The higher, the more assured the punter can be in selecting that team

CI Yield calculates the return where the investor follows the odds for every team game

 

investment day

Period Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
May 202225%
4(1)
20%
5(1)
0%
1(0)
0%
1(0)
0%
2(0)
23%
39(9)
20%
10(2)
21.0%
Apr 202235%
34(12)
38%
32(12)
40%
10(4)
50%
2(1)
38%
50(19)
27%
240(65)
37%
19(7)
31.0%
Mar 202233%
3(1)
29%
69(20)
32%
19(6)
40%
5(2)
36%
11(4)
29%
189(54)
14%
14(2)
28.7%
Feb 2022100%
1(1)
39%
62(24)
8%
13(1)
0%
1(0)
17%
6(1)
37%
148(55)
33%
9(3)
35.4%
Jan 202263%
8(5)
40%
40(16)
25%
12(3)
33%
6(2)
30%
182(55)
39%
28(11)
33.3%
Dec 202167%
6(4)
39%
28(11)
32%
38(12)
27%
11(3)
14%
7(1)
25%
119(30)
24%
45(11)
28.3%
Nov 20210%
2(0)
36%
47(17)
50%
14(7)
33%
9(3)
39%
160(62)
29%
17(5)
37.8%
Oct 2021100%
1(1)
30%
37(11)
62%
13(8)
22%
9(2)
37%
245(90)
30%
20(6)
36.3%
Sep 20210%
3(0)
34%
29(10)
31%
13(4)
20%
5(1)
37%
189(70)
40%
15(6)
35.8%
Aug 202150%
2(1)
36%
28(10)
60%
5(3)
13%
8(1)
30%
213(63)
30%
23(7)
30.5%
May 202129%
7(2)
14%
7(1)
0%
1(0)
29%
7(2)
32%
19(6)
26.8%
Total40.6%34.9%33.8%30.0%29.8%32.1%30.1%
* rolling 12 month

 

Analyses how predictable (see Conservative Investor) games are by day of week.

For example, if 24 games are played in February on a Wednesday, and 7 games resulted in an unpredicatble outcome, the result would be 7/24 = 29%. Therefore, lower percentages offer a greater likelihood of return

Thursday

is statistically the best day to invest on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds (minimum 10 matches played).