Season 2022

conservative investor

Team Predictability CI Yield
Cove Rangers 100.0% 36.5%
Hearts 87.5% 25.6%
Watford 88.2% 30.2%
Tottenham Hotspur 87.5% 17.1%
Stranraer 83.3% 29.3%
Liverpool 94.1% 21.9%
Gillingham 85.0% 38.7%
Norwich City 75.0% 10.9%
Kelty Hearts 82.4% 17.7%
Leeds United 83.3% 24.2%
Kilmarnock 75.0% 5.8%
Arbroath 75.0% 5.0%
Airdrie 82.4% 9.5%
Peterhead 64.7% 9.2%
Leicester City 76.5% 8.9%
Aston Villa 62.5% 2.2%
Falkirk 77.8% 13.6%
East Fife 64.7% 6.6%
Rangers 82.4% 5.2%
Everton 62.5% -1.0%
Dumbarton 78.9% 16.8%
Hamilton 66.7% 9.1%
Celtic 88.9% 8.0%
Newcastle United 68.8% -4.0%
St Mirren 77.8% 6.5%
Partick Thistle 61.1% 6.2%
Manchester City 82.4% -0.1%
Clyde 62.5% -6.2%
Arsenal 77.8% 4.7%
Dundee 66.7% 4.7%
Exeter City 86.4% 27.2%
Oldham Athletic 72.7% 25.5%
Carlisle United 61.9% 19.8%
Queen of South 66.7% 0.0%
Bolton Wanderers 86.4% 22.0%
Scunthorpe 68.2% 21.4%
Manchester United 66.7% -0.6%
Cowdenbeath 58.8% -6.4%
Brighton and HA 61.1% -1.4%
Livingston 66.7% -1.7%
Nottingham Forest 95.5% 19.3%
Elgin City 56.3% -13.4%
Morton 62.5% -13.9%
Albion 58.8% -8.6%
Blackpool 77.3% 18.0%
AFC Wimbledon 76.2% 12.4%
Crewe Alexandra 71.4% 12.4%
Birmingham City 72.7% 17.0%
Queen's Park 55.6% -4.4%
Blackburn Rovers 86.4% 16.4%
Burnley 56.3% -15.5%
Huddersfield Town 81.8% 15.5%
Stenhousemuir 58.8% -11.4%
Chelsea 58.8% -11.6%
Harrogate Town 77.3% 13.4%
Portsmouth 68.4% -3.1%
Wolverhampton W 58.8% -13.7%
Fleetwood Town 77.3% 11.1%
Ross County 56.3% -19.4%
Plymouth Argyle 90.9% 10.4%
Motherwell 73.7% -5.1%
Annan Athletic 57.9% -5.1%
Hibernian 66.7% -10.2%
Crystal Palace 61.1% -10.5%
Bradford City 68.2% 9.4%
Bristol Rovers 81.8% 9.2%
Sunderland 83.3% 17.8%
Walsall 72.7% 7.6%
Reading 72.7% 7.5%
Doncaster Rovers 61.9% 2.5%
Tranmere Rovers 77.3% 7.4%
Bristol City 68.2% 6.6%
Leyton Orient 71.4% 1.6%
Northampton Town 72.7% 6.3%
Raith Rovers 61.1% -13.2%
Brentford 58.8% -18.3%
Luton Town 82.6% 9.7%
Wycombe Wanderers 82.6% 9.6%
Barnsley 68.2% 4.1%
Stirling Albion 61.1% -14.9%
Forfar 57.9% -10.6%
MK Dons 78.3% 8.1%
Rotherham 78.3% 7.5%
Barrow 61.9% -2.1%
Edinburgh City 55.6% -16.3%
Forest Green Rovers 63.6% 2.0%
St Johnstone 68.4% -12.2%
Salford City 69.6% 5.0%
Montrose 57.9% -13.3%
Ayr 55.6% -18.1%
Queens Park Rangers 72.7% 0.1%
Mansfield Town 77.3% -0.0%
Wigan Athletic 72.7% -0.6%
Aberdeen 58.8% -23.8%
Cardiff City 59.1% -2.8%
Cheltenham 57.1% -7.9%
Dundee Utd 55.6% -21.2%
Accrington Stanley 61.9% -8.4%
Sutton Utd 71.4% -8.7%
Sheffield Wed. 68.2% -4.4%
Oxford United 72.7% -4.5%
Rochdale 50.0% -5.0%
Fulham 68.2% -5.4%
Port Vale 72.7% -6.9%
Inverness CT 57.9% -20.0%
Bournemouth 72.7% -7.4%
Peterborough United 50.0% -8.1%
Hull City 50.0% -8.8%
Newport 63.6% -9.3%
Lincoln City 57.1% -13.5%
Southampton 50.0% -25.8%
Crawley Town 52.4% -14.2%
Alloa 37.5% -35.5%
Middlesbrough 68.2% -12.1%
Colchester United 59.1% -12.2%
Swindon Town 63.6% -13.0%
Charlton Athletic 69.6% -9.2%
Stoke City 54.5% -13.4%
West Bromwich Albion 52.4% -17.5%
Millwall 63.6% -13.9%
Burton Albion 61.9% -19.1%
Morecambe 50.0% -16.2%
Hartlepool 50.0% -16.8%
Swansea City 59.1% -16.9%
Ipswich Town 56.5% -13.3%
Stevenage 45.5% -18.5%
Shrewsbury 56.5% -16.3%
West Ham United 35.3% -38.3%
Cambridge United 52.2% -17.0%
Coventry City 52.4% -24.4%
Dunfermline 52.6% -32.2%
Derby County 50.0% -25.3%
Preston NE 54.5% -27.8%
Sheffield Utd 54.5% -30.1%

 

Measure of a team's predictability when playing home games.

Predictability is defined as winning games a team is expected to win and correspondingly losing games when the odds suggests the team is expected to lose. A team with high predictability is more likely to return a profit on investment than a team with low predictability whilst playing home games on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds.

Magnitude emphasises the degree of predictability in the outcome of the game. The higher, the more assured the punter can be in selecting that team

CI Yield calculates the return where the investor follows the odds for every team game

 

investment day

Period Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
May 202220%
5(1)
25%
8(2)
30%
10(3)
0%
2(0)
0%
5(0)
23%
39(9)
20%
10(2)
21.5%
Apr 202235%
34(12)
38%
32(12)
40%
10(4)
50%
2(1)
38%
50(19)
27%
240(65)
37%
19(7)
31.0%
Mar 202233%
3(1)
29%
69(20)
32%
19(6)
40%
5(2)
36%
11(4)
29%
189(54)
14%
14(2)
28.7%
Feb 2022100%
1(1)
39%
62(24)
8%
13(1)
0%
1(0)
17%
6(1)
37%
148(55)
33%
9(3)
35.4%
Jan 202263%
8(5)
40%
40(16)
25%
12(3)
33%
6(2)
30%
182(55)
39%
28(11)
33.3%
Dec 202167%
6(4)
39%
28(11)
32%
38(12)
27%
11(3)
14%
7(1)
25%
119(30)
24%
45(11)
28.3%
Nov 20210%
2(0)
36%
47(17)
50%
14(7)
33%
9(3)
39%
160(62)
29%
17(5)
37.8%
Oct 2021100%
1(1)
30%
37(11)
62%
13(8)
22%
9(2)
37%
245(90)
30%
20(6)
36.3%
Sep 20210%
3(0)
34%
29(10)
31%
13(4)
20%
5(1)
37%
189(70)
40%
15(6)
35.8%
Aug 202150%
2(1)
36%
28(10)
60%
5(3)
13%
8(1)
30%
213(63)
30%
23(7)
30.5%
May 202129%
7(2)
14%
7(1)
0%
1(0)
29%
7(2)
32%
19(6)
26.8%
Total40.0%34.9%33.8%28.6%29.1%32.1%30.1%
* rolling 12 month

 

Analyses how predictable (see Conservative Investor) games are by day of week.

For example, if 24 games are played in February on a Wednesday, and 7 games resulted in an unpredicatble outcome, the result would be 7/24 = 29%. Therefore, lower percentages offer a greater likelihood of return

Saturday

is statistically the best day to invest on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds (minimum 50 matches played).