Season 2023

conservative investor

Team Predictability CI Yield
East Fife 100.0% 200.0%
Albion 100.0% 155.0%
Edinburgh City 100.0% 125.0%
Cheltenham 100.0% 120.0%
Crawley Town 100.0% 115.6%
Doncaster Rovers 100.0% 104.5%
Crystal Palace 100.0% 95.0%
Stenhousemuir 100.0% 88.0%
Raith Rovers 100.0% 87.4%
St Johnstone 100.0% 79.4%
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 100.0% 77.4%
Leyton Orient 100.0% 69.5%
Burton Albion 100.0% 66.7%
Newport 100.0% 66.7%
Bristol City 100.0% 65.2%
Northampton Town 100.0% 65.0%
Newcastle United 100.0% 65.0%
Derby County 100.0% 63.3%
Forest Green Rovers 100.0% 63.3%
Dundee Utd 100.0% 60.8%
MK Dons 100.0% 60.1%
St Mirren 100.0% 58.1%
Everton 100.0% 58.0%
Partick Thistle 0.0% 55.6%
Aberdeen 100.0% 53.6%
Hearts 100.0% 53.0%
Peterborough United 100.0% 50.0%
Luton Town 0.0% 50.0%
Portsmouth 0.0% 41.6%
Peterhead 100.0% 38.0%
Barnsley 100.0% 37.0%
Dunfermline 100.0% 36.5%
Livingston 100.0% 36.0%
Leeds United 100.0% 35.1%
Tottenham Hotspur 100.0% 35.0%
Watford 100.0% 34.2%
Bolton Wanderers 100.0% 33.7%
Stirling Albion 100.0% 33.2%
Blackpool 100.0% 32.3%
Sheffield Wed. 100.0% 31.9%
Dumbarton 100.0% 31.9%
Hull City 100.0% 31.4%
Crewe Alexandra 100.0% 31.0%
Oxford United 100.0% 31.0%
Bradford City 100.0% 30.6%
Walsall 100.0% 30.2%
Stoke City 100.0% 29.8%
Burnley 100.0% 29.4%
Wycombe Wanderers 100.0% 29.4%
Sheffield Utd 100.0% 28.6%
Forfar 100.0% 28.6%
Gillingham 100.0% 28.6%
Hamilton 100.0% 28.6%
Ross County 100.0% 22.0%
Rangers 100.0% 21.0%
West Ham United 100.0% 12.0%
AFC Wimbledon 100.0% 0.0%
Bristol Rovers 100.0% 0.0%
Annan Athletic 100.0% 0.0%
Ipswich Town 100.0% 0.0%
West Bromwich Albion 100.0% 0.0%
Salford City 100.0% 0.0%
Lincoln City 100.0% 0.0%
Exeter City 100.0% 0.0%
Wigan Athletic 100.0% 0.0%
Rochdale 100.0% 0.0%
Birmingham City 100.0% 0.0%
Blackburn Rovers 100.0% 0.0%
Middlesbrough 100.0% 0.0%
Mansfield Town 100.0% 0.0%
Port Vale 100.0% 0.0%
Clyde 100.0% 0.0%
Kilmarnock 100.0% 0.0%
Elgin City 100.0% 0.0%
Queen's Park 100.0% 0.0%
Celtic 100.0% -0.2%
Cove Rangers 0.0% -100.0%
Plymouth Argyle 0.0% -100.0%
Montrose 0.0% -100.0%
Barrow 0.0% -100.0%
Falkirk 0.0% -100.0%
Stranraer 0.0% -100.0%
Colchester United 100.0% -100.0%
Preston NE 100.0% -100.0%
Hartlepool 100.0% -100.0%
Queens Park Rangers 0.0% -100.0%
Inverness CT 0.0% -100.0%
Morton 0.0% -100.0%
Harrogate Town 0.0% -100.0%
Ayr 0.0% -100.0%
Manchester United 0.0% -100.0%
Alloa 0.0% -100.0%
Sutton Utd 100.0% -100.0%
Arbroath 100.0% -100.0%
Kelty Hearts 0.0% -100.0%
Queen of South 0.0% -100.0%
Airdrie 0.0% -100.0%
Morecambe 0.0% -100.0%
Carlisle United 0.0% -100.0%
Swansea City 0.0% -100.0%
Sunderland 100.0% -100.0%
Leicester City 0.0% -100.0%
Norwich City 0.0% -100.0%
Millwall 0.0% -100.0%
Tranmere Rovers 0.0% -100.0%
Bournemouth 0.0% -100.0%
Grimsby Town 0.0% -100.0%
Accrington Stanley 100.0% -100.0%
Cambridge United 0.0% -100.0%
Shrewsbury 0.0% -100.0%
Rotherham 0.0% -100.0%
Swindon Town 100.0% -100.0%
Stevenage 0.0% -100.0%
Fleetwood Town 0.0% -100.0%
Reading 0.0% -100.0%
Hibernian 100.0% -100.0%
Motherwell 0.0% -100.0%
Cardiff City 0.0% -100.0%
Dundee 0.0% -100.0%
Charlton Athletic 0.0% -100.0%
Fulham 0.0% -100.0%
Stockport County 0.0% -100.0%

 

Measure of a team's predictability when playing home games.

Predictability is defined as winning games a team is expected to win and correspondingly losing games when the odds suggests the team is expected to lose. A team with high predictability is more likely to return a profit on investment than a team with low predictability whilst playing home games on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds.

Magnitude emphasises the degree of predictability in the outcome of the game. The higher, the more assured the punter can be in selecting that team

CI Yield calculates the return where the investor follows the odds for every team game

 

investment day

Period Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
Aug 20220%
2(0)
0%
3(0)
33%
57(19)
40%
5(2)
31.3%
Jul 202237%
52(19)
0%
3(0)
34.5%
May 202229%
7(2)
25%
8(2)
30%
10(3)
0%
2(0)
0%
5(0)
20%
44(9)
23%
22(5)
21.4%
Apr 202235%
34(12)
38%
32(12)
40%
10(4)
50%
2(1)
38%
50(19)
27%
240(65)
37%
19(7)
31.0%
Mar 202233%
3(1)
29%
69(20)
32%
19(6)
40%
5(2)
36%
11(4)
29%
189(54)
14%
14(2)
28.7%
Feb 2022100%
1(1)
39%
62(24)
8%
13(1)
0%
1(0)
17%
6(1)
37%
148(55)
33%
9(3)
35.4%
Jan 202263%
8(5)
40%
40(16)
25%
12(3)
33%
6(2)
30%
182(55)
39%
28(11)
33.3%
Dec 202167%
6(4)
39%
28(11)
32%
38(12)
27%
11(3)
14%
7(1)
25%
119(30)
24%
45(11)
28.3%
Nov 20210%
2(0)
36%
47(17)
50%
14(7)
33%
9(3)
39%
160(62)
29%
17(5)
37.8%
Oct 2021100%
1(1)
30%
37(11)
62%
13(8)
0%
7(0)
37%
245(90)
30%
20(6)
35.9%
Total40.6%35.0%34.1%28.6%28.8%31.9%28.6%
* rolling 12 month

 

Analyses how predictable (see Conservative Investor) games are by day of week.

For example, if 24 games are played in February on a Wednesday, and 7 games resulted in an unpredicatble outcome, the result would be 7/24 = 29%. Therefore, lower percentages offer a greater likelihood of return

Sunday

is statistically the best day to invest on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds (minimum 10 matches played).