theSPian: Soccer Predictor
Season 2023

conservative investor

Team Predictability CI Yield
Edinburgh City 85.7% 31.5%
Raith Rovers 71.4% 20.6%
Cove Rangers 68.8% 22.8%
Southampton 76.5% 25.6%
Stirling Albion 64.3% 2.9%
Chelsea 87.5% 17.4%
Dunfermline 80.0% 9.8%
Montrose 75.0% 13.2%
Annan Athletic 66.7% 4.2%
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 66.7% 2.4%
Ross County 76.5% 14.9%
Bournemouth 75.0% 7.9%
Leeds United 82.4% 13.9%
Celtic 87.5% 6.8%
Arsenal 82.4% 12.3%
Rangers 88.9% 17.4%
Peterhead 70.6% 10.7%
MK Dons 85.7% 35.6%
Clyde 68.8% 3.3%
Arbroath 60.0% -4.2%
Dumbarton 66.7% -4.3%
Falkirk 82.4% 5.9%
West Ham United 68.8% -0.8%
Hearts 89.5% 16.8%
Manchester United 76.5% 3.9%
Alloa 68.8% -2.9%
Dundee Utd 76.5% 2.8%
Manchester City 88.9% 8.0%
Cheltenham 68.4% 13.8%
Airdrie 68.8% -4.6%
Sutton Utd 76.2% 25.2%
Hartlepool 65.0% 18.9%
Accrington Stanley 80.0% 18.7%
Livingston 70.6% 0.3%
Swindon Town 85.7% 23.3%
Forfar 62.5% -6.4%
Queen of South 68.8% -6.4%
Hamilton 73.7% 10.9%
Kelty Hearts 43.8% -7.4%
Aberdeen 72.2% 4.1%
AFC Wimbledon 75.0% 15.4%
Forest Green Rovers 70.0% 13.9%
St Johnstone 72.2% 2.4%
Queen's Park 68.8% -9.2%
Everton 70.6% -3.6%
Motherwell 64.7% -3.8%
Blackpool 76.2% 18.8%
Fulham 77.8% 0.9%
Tottenham Hotspur 72.2% 0.3%
Newcastle United 58.8% -6.2%
East Fife 56.3% -12.4%
Derby County 81.0% 14.5%
St Mirren 58.8% -7.7%
Peterborough United 68.4% 2.1%
Ayr 58.8% -8.8%
Leyton Orient 76.2% 12.5%
Stevenage 80.0% 7.0%
Port Vale 76.2% 11.9%
Hibernian 62.5% -14.8%
Fleetwood Town 75.0% 6.4%
Wigan Athletic 71.4% 11.3%
Bolton Wanderers 81.8% 16.4%
Walsall 63.2% 0.5%
Liverpool 73.7% 0.3%
Burnley 81.0% 10.8%
Leicester City 64.7% -10.6%
Middlesbrough 85.7% 10.3%
Aston Villa 66.7% -5.5%
Ipswich Town 81.0% 10.0%
Sheffield Wed. 86.4% 15.2%
Dundee 56.3% -16.2%
Queens Park Rangers 71.4% 9.1%
Stenhousemuir 43.8% -17.3%
Inverness CT 58.8% -12.1%
Rochdale 68.2% 13.5%
Brighton and HA 64.7% -12.7%
Doncaster Rovers 73.7% -5.3%
Crystal Palace 58.8% -15.5%
Bristol City 66.7% 3.5%
Albion 50.0% -22.6%
Colchester United 50.0% -3.3%
Stoke City 71.4% 1.2%
West Bromwich Albion 70.0% -3.8%
Newport 66.7% -0.6%
Sheffield Utd 77.3% 3.8%
Bradford City 65.0% -6.2%
Crewe Alexandra 68.2% 3.0%
Barnsley 71.4% -2.4%
Northampton Town 60.0% -7.2%
Wolverhampton W 55.6% -17.4%
Stockport County 71.4% -3.9%
Brentford 55.6% -18.6%
Kilmarnock 58.8% -23.8%
Gillingham 60.0% -10.7%
Birmingham City 57.1% -6.3%
Barrow 55.0% -11.0%
Luton Town 61.9% -6.6%
Hull City 71.4% -7.5%
Cardiff City 61.9% -7.8%
Oxford United 63.6% -4.4%
Shrewsbury 63.6% -4.7%
Norwich City 66.7% -9.3%
Nottingham Forest 52.9% -26.9%
Mansfield Town 65.0% -14.0%
Crawley Town 57.9% -18.8%
Portsmouth 55.0% -15.0%
Swansea City 66.7% -10.8%
Plymouth Argyle 61.9% -13.5%
Sunderland 57.1% -13.6%
Partick Thistle 47.1% -30.1%
Grimsby Town 55.0% -17.9%
Lincoln City 59.1% -9.8%
Charlton Athletic 50.0% -18.4%
Carlisle United 79.2% -3.5%
Preston NE 61.9% -15.7%
Exeter City 45.0% -19.9%
Tranmere Rovers 61.9% -16.0%
Morton 46.7% -40.7%
Cambridge United 57.1% -18.1%
Coventry City 59.1% -14.3%
Harrogate Town 54.5% -16.0%
Burton Albion 52.4% -20.4%
Stranraer 47.1% -35.9%
Watford 57.1% -21.3%
Morecambe 42.9% -21.6%
Elgin City 31.3% -40.5%
Blackburn Rovers 59.1% -18.4%
Huddersfield Town 42.1% -31.6%
Millwall 47.6% -24.5%
Salford City 54.5% -21.9%
Bristol Rovers 47.6% -26.7%
Reading 55.0% -30.5%
Wycombe Wanderers 50.0% -31.7%
Rotherham 59.1% -26.4%

 

Measure of a team's predictability when playing home games.

Predictability is defined as winning games a team is expected to win and correspondingly losing games when the odds suggests the team is expected to lose. A team with high predictability is more likely to return a profit on investment than a team with low predictability whilst playing home games on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds.

Magnitude emphasises the degree of predictability in the outcome of the game. The higher, the more assured the punter can be in selecting that team

CI Yield calculates the return where the investor follows the odds for every team game

 

investment day

Period Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
May 202324%
33(8)		0%
2(0)		27%
11(3)		40%
5(2)		9%
11(1)		23%
52(12)		24%
37(9)		23.2%
Apr 202339%
38(15)		38%
50(19)		45%
11(5)		0%
4(0)		43%
44(19)		34%
191(64)		25%
16(4)		35.6%
Mar 20230%
1(0)		0%
2(0)		50%
2(1)		30%
61(18)		33%
3(1)		29.0%
Feb 202325%
4(1)		40%
63(25)		20%
15(3)		56%
9(5)		39%
226(89)		20%
10(2)		38.2%
Jan 202339%
31(12)		16%
19(3)		25%
8(2)		0%
3(0)		17%
6(1)		30%
149(44)		41%
34(14)		30.4%
Dec 202241%
41(17)		0%
8(0)		11%
9(1)		34%
29(10)		52%
21(11)		40%
91(36)		67%
3(2)		38.1%
Nov 202248%
27(13)		0%
11(0)		14%
7(1)		35%
133(47)		40%
10(4)		34.6%
Oct 202220%
5(1)		49%
63(31)		59%
22(13)		0%
2(0)		40%
10(4)		31%
285(88)		29%
28(8)		34.9%
Sep 20220%
1(0)		36%
33(12)		17%
6(1)		0%
1(0)		20%
5(1)		29%
138(40)		40%
10(4)		29.9%
Aug 202250%
4(2)		38%
40(15)		29%
14(4)		22%
9(2)		32%
233(75)		33%
21(7)		32.7%
Jul 202237%
52(19)		0%
3(0)		34.5%
Total35.4%38.7%29.4%27.3%37.1%33.0%31.4%
* rolling 12 month

 

Analyses how predictable (see Conservative Investor) games are by day of week.

For example, if 24 games are played in February on a Wednesday, and 7 games resulted in an unpredicatble outcome, the result would be 7/24 = 29%. Therefore, lower percentages offer a greater likelihood of return

Wednesday

is statistically the best day to invest on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds (minimum 50 matches played).

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