Season 2023

conservative investor

 

Measure of a team's predictability when playing home games.

Predictability is defined as winning games a team is expected to win and correspondingly losing games when the odds suggests the team is expected to lose. A team with high predictability is more likely to return a profit on investment than a team with low predictability whilst playing home games on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds.

Magnitude emphasises the degree of predictability in the outcome of the game. The higher, the more assured the punter can be in selecting that team

CI Yield calculates the return where the investor follows the odds for every team game

 

investment day

Period Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
May 202324%
33(8)
0%
2(0)
27%
11(3)
40%
5(2)
9%
11(1)
23%
52(12)
24%
37(9)
23.2%
Apr 202339%
38(15)
38%
50(19)
45%
11(5)
0%
4(0)
43%
44(19)
34%
191(64)
25%
16(4)
35.6%
Mar 20230%
1(0)
0%
2(0)
50%
2(1)
30%
61(18)
33%
3(1)
29.0%
Feb 202325%
4(1)
40%
63(25)
20%
15(3)
56%
9(5)
39%
226(89)
20%
10(2)
38.2%
Jan 202339%
31(12)
16%
19(3)
25%
8(2)
0%
3(0)
17%
6(1)
30%
149(44)
41%
34(14)
30.4%
Dec 202241%
41(17)
0%
8(0)
11%
9(1)
34%
29(10)
52%
21(11)
40%
91(36)
67%
3(2)
38.1%
Nov 202248%
27(13)
0%
11(0)
14%
7(1)
35%
133(47)
40%
10(4)
34.6%
Oct 202220%
5(1)
49%
63(31)
59%
22(13)
0%
2(0)
40%
10(4)
31%
285(88)
29%
28(8)
34.9%
Sep 20220%
1(0)
36%
33(12)
17%
6(1)
0%
1(0)
20%
5(1)
29%
138(40)
40%
10(4)
29.9%
Aug 202250%
4(2)
38%
40(15)
29%
14(4)
22%
9(2)
32%
233(75)
33%
21(7)
32.7%
Jul 202237%
52(19)
0%
3(0)
34.5%
Total35.4%38.7%29.4%27.3%37.1%33.0%31.4%
* rolling 12 month

 

Analyses how predictable (see Conservative Investor) games are by day of week.

For example, if 24 games are played in February on a Wednesday, and 7 games resulted in an unpredicatble outcome, the result would be 7/24 = 29%. Therefore, lower percentages offer a greater likelihood of return

Sunday

is statistically the best day to invest on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds (minimum 50 matches played).