conservative investor
Measure of a team's predictability when playing home games.
Predictability is defined as winning games a team is expected to win and correspondingly losing games when the odds suggests the team is expected to lose. A team with high predictability is more likely to return a profit on investment than a team with low predictability whilst playing home games on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds.
Magnitude emphasises the degree of predictability in the outcome of the game. The higher, the more assured the punter can be in selecting that team
CI Yield calculates the return where the investor follows the odds for every team game
investment day
| Period | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2023 | 100% 1(1) | 0% 5(0) | 26% 131(34) | 33% 9(3) | 26.0% | |||
| Aug 2023 | 0% 2(0) | 28% 25(7) | 0% 6(0) | 38% 218(82) | 33% 18(6) | 35.3% | ||
| May 2023 | 24% 33(8) | 0% 2(0) | 27% 11(3) | 40% 5(2) | 9% 11(1) | 23% 52(12) | 24% 37(9) | 23.2% |
| Apr 2023 | 39% 38(15) | 38% 50(19) | 45% 11(5) | 0% 4(0) | 43% 44(19) | 34% 191(64) | 25% 16(4) | 35.6% |
| Mar 2023 | 0% 1(0) | 0% 2(0) | 50% 2(1) | 30% 61(18) | 33% 3(1) | 29.0% | ||
| Feb 2023 | 25% 4(1) | 40% 63(25) | 20% 15(3) | 56% 9(5) | 39% 226(89) | 20% 10(2) | 38.2% | |
| Jan 2023 | 39% 31(12) | 16% 19(3) | 25% 8(2) | 0% 3(0) | 17% 6(1) | 30% 149(44) | 41% 34(14) | 30.4% |
| Dec 2022 | 41% 41(17) | 0% 8(0) | 11% 9(1) | 34% 29(10) | 52% 21(11) | 40% 91(36) | 67% 3(2) | 38.1% |
| Nov 2022 | 48% 27(13) | 0% 11(0) | 14% 7(1) | 35% 133(47) | 40% 10(4) | 34.6% | ||
| Oct 2022 | 20% 5(1) | 49% 63(31) | 59% 22(13) | 0% 2(0) | 40% 10(4) | 31% 285(88) | 29% 28(8) | 34.9% |
| Sep 2022 | 33% 3(1) | 50% 2(1) | 5% 20(1) | 60% 5(3) | 20.0% | Total | 35.3% | 38.1% | 30.3% | 27.9% | 35.8% | 33.1% | 32.4% |
Analyses how predictable (see Conservative Investor) games are by day of week.
For example, if 24 games are played in February on a Wednesday, and 7 games resulted in an unpredicatble outcome, the result would be 7/24 = 29%. Therefore, lower percentages offer a greater likelihood of return
Wednesday
is statistically the best day to invest on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds (minimum 50 matches played).