Season 2025

conservative investor

Team Predictability CI Yield

 

Measure of a team's predictability when playing home games.

Predictability is defined as winning games a team is expected to win and correspondingly losing games when the odds suggests the team is expected to lose. A team with high predictability is more likely to return a profit on investment than a team with low predictability whilst playing home games on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds.

Magnitude emphasises the degree of predictability in the outcome of the game. The higher, the more assured the punter can be in selecting that team

CI Yield calculates the return where the investor follows the odds for every team game

 

investment day

Period Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
May 202450%
2(1)
0%
2(0)
14%
7(1)
100%
1(1)
50%
6(3)
29%
48(14)
21%
19(4)
28.2%
Apr 202431%
36(11)
28%
50(14)
35%
17(6)
33%
3(1)
33%
6(2)
35%
227(79)
33%
18(6)
33.3%
Mar 20240%
2(0)
31%
42(13)
25%
8(2)
100%
1(1)
46%
41(19)
28%
218(60)
20%
15(3)
30.0%
Feb 20240%
4(0)
35%
75(26)
18%
17(3)
33%
9(3)
37%
224(83)
14%
14(2)
34.1%
Jan 202430%
40(12)
0%
14(0)
40%
5(2)
36%
140(51)
29%
7(2)
32.5%
Dec 20230%
2(0)
34%
53(18)
16%
25(4)
83%
6(5)
40%
40(16)
32%
157(50)
38%
21(8)
33.2%
Nov 2023100%
2(2)
36%
45(16)
38%
13(5)
40%
5(2)
33%
158(52)
36%
14(5)
34.6%
Oct 202325%
4(1)
25%
71(18)
25%
12(3)
29%
7(2)
30%
171(52)
28%
18(5)
28.6%
Sep 202333%
3(1)
33%
9(3)
0%
6(0)
11%
9(1)
32%
248(79)
22%
18(4)
30.0%
Aug 20230%
2(0)
28%
25(7)
0%
6(0)
38%
218(82)
33%
18(6)
35.3%
Total28.9%29.8%22.9%72.7%37.3%33.3%27.8%
* rolling 12 month

 

Analyses how predictable (see Conservative Investor) games are by day of week.

For example, if 24 games are played in February on a Wednesday, and 7 games resulted in an unpredicatble outcome, the result would be 7/24 = 29%. Therefore, lower percentages offer a greater likelihood of return

Wednesday

is statistically the best day to invest on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds (minimum 50 matches played).